Across the ideological spectrum there is a virtual consensus that Ohio is Michigan’s main economic competitor. The state Michigan should want to look like. And a general consensus that they are doing better than us. Many believe far better than us.
The reality is far different. Ohio, just like Michigan, is one of America’s poorest states. Ohio ranks 37th in 2025 preliminary per capita income. Like Michigan it has experienced a precipitous decline since 1999. Going from five percent below the national average to twelve percent below in 2025. If Ohio’s per capita income was still five percent below each person in Ohio today would have $5,300 more income.
Michigan has suffered a much more severe quarter century decline, falling from even with the nation in per capita income in 1999 to thirteen percent below in 2025. But over the last decade Ohio’s per capita income decline is slightly worse than Michigan’s. Growing 4.4 percent compared to 4.5 percent for Michigan and 4.7 percent for the nation.
Ohio, just like Michigan, is now a low average wage state. Its average wage is thirteen percent below the nation’s. In 1999 it was six percent below. If Ohio’s average wage were still six percent below each worker be earning today $5,700 more. Michigan has fallen farther, from seven percent above the nation’s to ten percent below today. But Michigan’s average wage is still higher than Ohio’s: $70,817 vs $68,296.
Ohio, just like Michigan, is a low BA attainment state. Ranking 38th compared to 34th for Michigan. This matters because the proportion of adults with a BA or more is by far the best predictor of a state’s per capita income. In a knowledge based economy the asset that matters most to high wage employers is talent.This is an economy where talent attracts capital. So a state’s prosperity today and tomorrow is highly dependent on college attainment. Michigan and Ohio are both national laggards.
The evidence is crystal clear: when it comes to economic wellbeing Michigan and Ohio are virtually identical. Both have been declining compared to the nation for the past quarter century. Both are low prosperity, low wage. low education attainment states.
Hopefully we all agree that we want Michigan to be both a high per capita income state and a high average wage state. Just like we were in 1999 and for most of the 20th Century. If that is the case, Ohio does not offer either a playbook or road map that we should model ourselves after They may have an overall ideological tilt or a particular policy or practice that you like, but if the results don’t lead to higher prosperity and more higher paid jobs they are not what Michigan needs to reverse our precipitous economic decline.
Neither does Indiana, the next most frequently mentioned state that Michigan should be like. Indiana too is one of America’s poorest states. In preliminary 2025 per capita income they ranked 40th, just below Michigan. They have fallen from nine percent below the nation in per capita income in 1999 to thirteen percent below today. Its average wage is lower than Michigan’s: seventeen percent below the nation’s, compared to ten percent below for Michigan. They are 42nd in the proportion of adults with a BA compared to 34th for Michigan. Hopefully we can all agree, just like with Ohio, these also are not the education or economic results we want for Michigan.
