In our last post we detailed Oakland County’s decline, falling in per capita income from 21st among the nation’s counties in 1999 to 122 in 2024. In this post we widen our lens to look at all of the big counties that dominant metro Detroit.
As you will see each of the five most populous counties in the region have experienced steep declines in prosperity. As a whole each county’s fall is largely due to metro Detroit going from a high prosperity region to a low prosperity region over the last 25 years. In 1999 metro Detroit’s per capita income was 12 percent above the nation’s, in 2023 (latest available data) it was 4 percent below. (Washtenaw County is not included in these regional data.)
To review, in 1999 Oakland County’s per capita income was 55 percent above the nation’s. In 2024 it was 28 percent above. If Oakland County’s per capita income were still 55 percent above each person in Oakland County would have $20,000 more income.
In 1999 Livingston County’s per capita income was 17 percent above the nation’s. In 2024 it was four percent above. It ranked 126 among the nation’s counties in 1999. In 2024 it ranked 350. If Livingston County’s per capita income were still 17 percent above each person in Livingston County would have about $8,600 more income.
In 1999 Macomb County’s per capita income was eight percent above the nation’s. In 2024 it was 17 percent below. It ranked 179 among the nation’s counties in 1999. In 2024 it ranked 1,095. You read that right more than 900 counties passed Macomb in the last quarter of a century. If Macomb County’s per capita income were still eight percent above each person in Macomb County would have about $18,000 more income.
In 1999 Washtenaw County’s per capita income was 20 percent above the nation’s. In 2024 it was nine percent above. It ranked 114 among the nation’s counties in 1999. In 2024 it ranked 269. If Washtenaw County’s per capita income were still 20 percent above each person in Washtenaw County would have about $13,700 more income.
In 1999 Wayne County’s per capita income was nine percent below the nation’s. In 2024 it was 24 percent below. It ranked 560 among the nation’s counties in 1999. In 2024 it ranked 1,604. So more than 1,000 counties passed it in the last quarter of a century. If Wayne County’s per capita income were still nine percent below each person in Wayne County would have about $11,000 more income.
What are the common characteristics of big population counties that are now more prosperous than each of metro Detroit’s big population counties? Prosperous large population counties are predominantly from regions with a high proportion of high wage households. Plus, mainly in Florida, counties with a high proportion of high net worth retirees. Leaving aside those whose prosperity is retiree driven, prosperous counties, like prosperous states, are characterized by being in regions that are knowledge economy concentrated and have a high proportion of adults with a BA or more. Metro Detroit is laggard among big metros in both.
The steep decline among the four metro Detroit counties that had per capita income above the nation’s in 1999 is best evidence that Michigan’s economic well being collapse this last quarter of a century is an all state problem. Not just, as conventional wisdom has it, a result of steep declines in Michigan’s high low income and high minority counties, like Wayne County. Yes those counties have declined steeply. But so have our most prosperous counties. It is far past time for alarm bells and for Michigan to adopt a new, big change, economic agenda.
