Over the past several decades we have been inundated with stories about so-called education miracle states. All garnering attention because of big gains in National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) 4th grade reading scores. The current miracle state is Mississippi. Several years ago it was Tennessee. And back at the turn of the century it was Florida with then Governor Jeb Bush’s A+ plan.
In each case Michigan has been labelled a national laggard and exhorted on a cross-sector, cross-ideological basis to replicate the polices and practices of the miracle state of the moment.
The question is “is that good advice?” if your goal is to prepare all Michigan students to graduate high school college and career ready.
Florida’s education reform package was implemented in 1999. So it has been in place for a quarter of a century. Let’s look at what has happened to student achievement in Florida since then.
Using the the graduating class of 2023 we can view a cohort’s standardized test scores in the 4th, 8th and 12th grades. And compare them to the Michigan 2023 graduating class
2015 4th grade NAEP reading scores
- Florida 227 +6 compared to the country
- Michigan 216 -5 compared to the country
2019 8th grade NAEP reading scores
- Florida 263 +1 compared to the country
- Michigan 263 +1 compared to the country
2023 ACT scores
- Florida 967 with 90% of students taking the test compared to a national average score of 1028. 58 percent meeting the evidence-based reading and writing benchmark, 29 percent meeting the math threshold.
- Michigan 966 with 97% of students taking the test compared to a national average score of 1028. 53 percent meeting the evidence-based reading and writing benchmark, 31 percent meeting the math threshold.
Florida’s 4th grade 2015 reading scores were lower than only three states. Michigan’s 4th grade reading scores were higher than only two states. A cause for alarm bells? Turns out not. 4th grade reading scores are not good predictors of ultimate student outcomes or success. Michigan with a perceived horrible K-12 education policy regime and Florida with a perceived model education policy regime, by the 8th grade had the same student test score outcomes and that held true for high school graduates too.
We would argue that both states have unacceptably low student outcomes. They both are low college attainment states. Both states need policymaker alarm bells to better prepare all students for postsecondary and 40 year career success. But those should be the goals we are designing schooling for for all students, not how well they do on a 4th grade test.
Mississippi and Tennessee also have low college entrance exam scores and are low college attainment states. There is nothing in their current test scores that should make one confident that they are on the path to do better than either Michigan or Florida.
Here are the 2024 8th grade reading scores for all four states:
- Florida: 253
- Michigan: 255
- Mississippi: 253
- Tennessee:257
NAEP labels Tennessee higher than 12 states, Michigan higher than seven states, Mississippi higher than five states and Florida higher than four states. Hopefully unacceptable in each of the states.
Sure seems like all four states––not just Michigan––need big change in their education polices and practices.
