Terrific new report entitled The Future of Good Jobs | Projections through 2031 by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. Highly recommended.
Using what we would consider a low-bar definition of a good-paying job the report projects in 2031 66 percent of good-paying jobs will be B.A. pathway jobs; 19 percent middle skills pathway jobs and 15 percent high school pathway jobs.
The good news is that the report projects the proportion of good-paying jobs will increase from 59 percent of all jobs in 2021 to 62 percent in 2031. A net increase of 15.2 million jobs. Of that increase basically all are B.A. pathways jobs. So the proportion of good-paying jobs over the next decade that require a B.A. goes up from 59 percent to 66 percent.
More specifically:
- The report defines a good-paying job as one that pays at least $43,000 for workers age 25-44 and $55,000 for workers age 45-64. The report notes that “many of the good jobs referred to in this report pay well above the minimum earnings threshold and provide room for earnings growth with time”.
- The report also provides state level thresholds for good-paying jobs. For Michigan those thresholds are $40,200 for workers age 25-44 and $51,700 for workers age 45-64
- Nationally there were 42.6 million good-paying B.A. pathway jobs in 2021 and it is projected that will grow to 58.2 million in 2031
- Nationally there were 16.2 million good-paying middle skills pathway jobs in 2021 and it is projected that will grow slightly to 16.4 million in 2031
- Nationally there were 13.8 million good-paying high school pathway jobs in 2021 and it is projected that will fall slightly to 13.2 million in 2031
This reality today, and even more so projected a decade from now, is much different that conventional wisdom. The public conversation is dominated by the story that you can now do as well economically without a four-year degree as you can with one. That preeminent story is simply inaccurate. By far the most reliable path to a good-paying jobs and a good-paying forty-year career is to follow the B.A. pathway.
Also contrary to conventional wisdom are the occupations with the most good-paying jobs. Conventional wisdom has it that good-paying jobs are highly concentrated in the skilled trades for those without a B.A. and in STEM occupation fo those with a B.A. Neither is accurate. STEM occupations account for 11 percent of all good-paying jobs projected in 2031. Blue collar occupations––defined in the report as all jobs in construction and extraction; production; transportation and material moving; installation, maintenance, and repair; and farming, fishing, and forestry––account for 17 percent of all good-paying jobs projected in 2031.
By far the most good-paying jobs are in the management and professional office cluster––which encompasses the management, business and financial operations, and legal occupational groups. The cluster accounts for 31 percent of all the good-paying jobs projected in 2031.
Other occupation clusters with lots of good-paying jobs projected in 2031 are sales and office support at 14 percent, healthcare professional and technical at nine percent and education, training, and library at seven percent.
